『下载』财务模型:公司估值、兼并与收购、项目融资

财务顾问手把手教你财务建模!分步式指导,逐一攻克建模难点!大量案例展示,将理论全面落地!

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《财务模型:公司估值、兼并与收购、项目融资》一书对有志于创建、解读、了解财务模型的人来说是一本综合性指导用书。本书汇集了作者多年以来从事建模、模型评估等工作及教授公司融资、项目融资、并购和房地产建模课程所积累的经验,全面讲解如何处理繁多的建模难题以及如何构建结构严谨的模型。同时,还将对模型结构的灵活性、有效性以及稳定性进行说明。无论你是初学者还是希望切实提高建模水平的人士,《财务模型:公司估值、兼并与收购、项目融资》一书都会助你成为更加的建模者。

本书将构建各类模型,并分析、演示计算过程及结果,以便你能够了解不同模型的特性。希望你从本书中得到启发并有所借鉴,最终能够将所学知识应用到实践中去。 
《财务模型:公司估值、兼并与收购、项目融资》一书将讲解如何才能做出灵活、简明及准确的财务分析,另外,由于过去几年建模技术发展得越发复杂和精细,因此本书不仅会介绍那些常规的建模技巧,还会另辟蹊径介绍一些解决复杂问题的独门秘籍,这些建模技术即便是资深建模者也甚少使用。例如,你可以学到如何通过自定义函数来解决循环引用的问题,从而避免复制及粘贴宏的麻烦,或是编写一个程序,利用资产使用寿命、历史增长率、税金、投资收益以及资本成本等驱动指标来计算公司价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)。

本书中介绍的特色建模技巧包括:

①在考虑资产报废因素的情况下计算折旧。

②构建嵌入历史数据的自动化模型。

③以灵活的方式综合演示情景及敏感性分析结果。

④准确计算经营亏损结转金额以及递延税项。

⑤在不使用任何Excel宏加载项的情况下,在财务模型中嵌入时间序列以及蒙特卡洛模拟。

⑥对终期资本性支出和递延税项进行标准化处理,模拟债务偿还的税后现金流,计算债务偿还余额。

⑦对不同使用周期的资产组合建模,通过建立长期模型来检验公司价值与权益价值之间的差异项。

书中提及的建模问题,有一些你可能都没有想到过,例如,在对公司现金流进行常规化处理时,基于历史数据和预测增长率自动计算资本性支出金额,前提条件是资本性支出与折旧的比例是固定的。对于风险分析、循环引用、现金流的常规化处理、折旧费用以及对不同使用寿命的资产组合建模等问题的处理大都需要使用Visual Basic for Applications (VBA)进行自定义编程。 

《财务模型:公司估值、兼并与收购、项目融资》一书的主旨不仅是演示如何处理建模难题,还将围绕这样一个话题,即为什么要按照特定的方式构建财务模型展开讨论并揭开背后隐藏的财务原理。从不同类型财务模型的基本结构再到建立用户自定义VBA程序来解决循环引用的问题,本书将结合理论,从财务的角度出发来说明为什么要关注这些问题。在分步讲解建模方法之前,我们围绕几个理论性话题展开讨论,其中会涉及:不同的公司结构,项目融资、公司融资以及并购融资下的估值,现金流瀑布导致的风险分配问题,公司和项目融资中的信用分析,风险分析中的债务架构设计,确定哪些项目应该属于公司价值与权益价值的差异项等。此外,本书还将讨论估值错误,看看建模过程中设置的假设数据是否正确,是否可以规避那些常见且反复出现的估值错误。然后,将结合大量的真实模型中的图表和截图分步讲解建模过程中遇到的难题。 

本书将财务建模理论和实践相结合,共分为以下四部分:

第一部分介绍各类财务模型的结构,以及如何从A到Z来创建一个财务模型。

第二部分讲解如何在财务模型中进行风险分析。

第三部分处理公司模型中的一些问题。例如,在计算常规现金流、推导隐含的估值乘数以及评估公司价值与权益价值之间的差异项过程中遇到的问题;在项目融资和公司模型中,通常会因为计算现金流归集,项目经营前的融资金额、债务计划安排以及准备金而引发循环引用问题。

第四部分将介绍相应的解决方法。 

本书第一部分

介绍如何构建各类财务模型,所构建的模型应该能够满足以下几点要求:可以进行有效的风险分析,设计不同的交易结构,以及能够站在债务和权益角度评估价值。这里还将从模型设计的角度出发,探讨具备明确起始和截止日期的项目投资和没有明确期限的公司之间的哲学差异。后面还将基于这些模型来讲解如何才能构建一个有效的模型,在讨论相关内容时会尽量避免使用编程技术。在介绍模型的构建逻辑之前,我们会先讲解如何才能快速识别模型错误。在分步讲解建模的过程中,首先会介绍基于经济学理论设置的模型假设数据。

接下来,将介绍时间轴的设置方法,该技术可以解决以下难题:在公司模型中添加历史时期数据所引发的计算问题,项目融资模型中建设期延后的评估问题,以及在并购模型中模拟不同的交易时间所引发的计算问题。一旦构建了时间轴,接下来就会重点关注税前现金流、税后现金流,然后是融资金额的计算。在计算税金和折旧时,会介绍一项技术,即在考虑历史增长率和资产报废的情况下,通过创建用户自定义函数来动态计算折旧金额。最后,会将债务融资引入各类模型,计算可向各类投资者分配的现金流并构建现金流瀑布。 

本书第二部分

将讲解如何利用财务模型进行投资风险分析。从定性风险矩阵再到随机时间序列方程,这里将围绕各类风险评估方法展开讨论,全面介绍风险分析理论。然后,将介绍一系列风险分析技术,包括敏感性分析、盈亏平衡分析、情景分析以及蒙特卡洛模拟,这些技术适用于各类模型。这里将对每一项风险分析技术进行分步讲解,而且还会说明如何运用动态图表、下拉列表控件、数据表以及选定的宏程序来陈述风险分析结果。在进行情景分析时,通常会设置一个主要情景数据页,修改该页中的数据就会影响整个模型的输出结果,同时,管理人员可以使用敏感性分析工具对模型进行调整。再接下来,就将介绍如何在财务模型中绘制龙卷风图和蛛网图。最后将讲解蒙特卡洛模拟在财务模型中的应用问题,本书将展示如何在不使用任何嵌入式程序的前提下,只依靠一点点VBA编程技术就能够在任何财务模型中创建蒙特卡洛模拟。阐述如何在建模过程中使用随机方程的同时,还将告诉你如何使用各类工具对风险进行实际测算,而不仅仅是绘制漂亮的分布图。在模拟建模的过程中,你就会明白估算均值回归、各变量之间的相关性以及时间序列方程边界值的重要性。 

本书第三部分

主要针对在计算常规现金流、推导隐含的估值乘数以及评估公司价值与权益价值之间的差异项过程中遇到的问题。首先讨论如何基于历史和预测投入资本回报率来验证模型假设的合理性。接下来,通过讲解如何对资产负债表科目进行重新分类,也就是弄清楚哪些科目与融资有关、哪些科目与息税折旧摊销前利润有关,来处理和解决高级建模问题。在进行估值分析时,如何处理各个科目是一个比较棘手的问题,为此,我们将构建一个理论模型,用来模拟较长预测期内的会计和现金流相关科目金额。采用半年期计算惯例和各种资本成本的现金流折现模型,通常会用理论建模法来推导简单的计算公式,另外,还会使用理论建模法来说明估值错误是如何发生的,例如错将累计递延税金按照负债进行处理后会引发怎样的估值错误。这部分的核心思想就是展示如何通过编写用户自定义VBA功能来处理常规息税折旧摊销前利润、资本性支出以及递延税金的计算难题。讨论完如何计算常规现金流,我们就会揭示价值驱动公式(1-g/ROIC)/(WACC-g)在终值计算中的重大缺陷。由于不能使用价值驱动公式计算估值,本书将介绍另一种方法,即在增长率、资本成本、收益以及其他因子都会发生变化的情况下,使用更精准的用户自定义函数来自动计算公司价值倍数以及市盈率。 

本书最后部分

将讲解如何使用特殊方法处理复杂的财务建模难题,这些方法之所以特殊,是因为连专业建模人员都甚少使用。开发用户自定义函数来解决财务建模难题,并不要求你掌握很多的编程知识抑或能够编写很长的VBA代码。这部分要解决的主要问题就是公司模型、并购模型,特别是项目融资模型中的循环引用问题。其核心思想是即使不使用复制粘贴宏也可以解决所有的循环引用问题,之所以介绍这种替代方法,是因为复制粘贴宏有可能会毁掉整个模型。

讨论过循环引用的哲学原理后,我们将以并购模型中因设置现金流归集而引发的循环引用问题为例进行说明。本书将介绍五个循环引用问题的解决方法,其中包括之前讨论的复制粘贴宏,以及用户自定义函数中的分解方程式,一般推荐使用后者。一个与利息费用和利息收益计算有关的经典的循环引用问题,就是使用自定义函数以及分解方程式解决的。可以说,这里涵盖了项目融资模型中的所有建模难题,

其中包括:

①融资金额、资本化利息以及手续费的计算;

②在考虑税金的情况下设置债务偿还计划;

③债务偿还准备金账户的计算;

④大修准备金账户的计算;

⑤现金流归集和分红限制性条款的设置;

⑥债务再融资以及项目不同阶段的估值;

⑦在房地产模型中加入资产组合。

 

模型及相关文件目录:

Chapter 4: The Structure of Alternative Financial Models

  • Featured Example Models
    • Corporate Model Examples
      • Saudi Cement Corporate Model
      • Evraz Corporate Model
    • Project Finance Model Example
      • IPP Project Finance Model
      • Solar Project Finance Model
    • Acquisition Model
      • Meracorp Acquisition Model
    • Integrated Model
      • Consolidation Structuring Model
  • Model Exercises
    • Corporate Model Exercises
      • Index Function Exercise
      • Building a Basic Corporate Model
      • Simple Corporate Model Exercise
    • Project Finance Exercises
      • IRR and ROI Reconciliation Exercise
      • Simple Project Finance Exercise
    • Acquisition Model Exercise
    • Integrated Model Exercise
  • PDF to Excel

Chapter 5: Avoiding Bad Programming Practices and Creating Effective Auditing Processes

  • Show Formula Function
  • Add Text Function
  • Sheet Name Function
  • Generic Macros
  • Functions and Macros Collection with Short-cut List
  • List of All Functions in Book

Chapter 6: Developing and Efficiently Organizing Assumptions

  • Port Model with Industry Analysis
  • Exercise on Price and Marginal Cost
  • GM Scatter Plots
  • Wind Model with Assumptions Set Up in Project Finance Model

Chapter 7: Structuring Time Lines

  • Project Finance Time Line Exercise
  • Corporate Finance with History Exercise
  • Holding Period in Acquisition Exercise
  • Suntech Acquisition Model with Time Line Transfer

Chapter 8: Projecting Revenues, Expenses, and Capital Expenditures to Derive Pretax Cash Flow

  • S-Curve Exercise
  • Industry Capacity Corporate Exercise
  • Corporate Model Exercise with Working Section
  • Toll Way Model with Periodic Inflation

Chapter 9: Moving from Pretax Cash Flow to After-Tax Free Cash Flow

  • Working Capital Exercise with Recession
  • Alternative Depreciation Methods in Corporate Models
  • Depreciation Functions
  • Tax Exercise in Acquisition Model

Chapter 10: Adding Debt to Corporate or Project Finance Model by Programming Cash Flow Waterfalls

  • Simple Cash Flow Plug in Corporate Model
  • Waterfall in Acquisition
  • Debt Default in Project Finance
  • Mezzanine Debt in Acquisition Model
  • ABC Debt in Acquisition Exercise

Chapter 11: Alternative Calculations of Equity Distributions

  • Cash Flip in Project Finance
  • Flip with Alternative Construction Funding
  • Annual Solar Model
  • Constant Capital Structure with Algebra
  • Earn Out, Management Ratchet and Put Option to Existing Owners
  • Financial Institution Exercise with Target Capital Adequacy
  • Target Capital Structure with Solver in Corporate Finance
  • Tax Equity Model

Chapter 12: Putting Together Financial Statements and Calculating Income Taxes

  • Basic Tax Exercise
  • Advanced NOL Exercise
  • NOL and Deferred Tax

Chapter 13: Risk Assessment: The Centerpiece of All Valuation, Contracting, and Credit Issues in Finance

  • Waterfall Graph Templates and Explanations
    • Construction of Waterfall Graphs
    • Waterfall Template for Excel 2007
    • Waterfall Template for Excel 2010
  • M&A Example - Kraft and Cadbury

Chapter 15: Presentation of Risk Analysis through Adding Sensitivity Analysis to Financial Models

  • Crimson Case with Graph from Cash Flow Sources and Distributions
  • Single Model with Monthly and Annual Aggregation
  • Mixed Use Model Aggregation with INDIRECT
  • End of Quarter Function
  • Dynamic Graph Exercise with #N/A
  • Dynamic Graph Exercise with OFFSET
  • Flexible Print with OFFSET

Chapter 16: Using Financial Models to Establish Break-Even Points for Key Input Variables with Data Tables

  • DSCR, PLCR, and LLCR Exercise
  • One-Way and Two-Way Data Table Exercise
  • Break-Even Exercise with One-Way Data Table
  • LBO Featured Model with VBA Flexible Data Tables
  • Data Table with VBA and Goal Seek Exercise

Chapter 17: Constructing Flexible Scenario Analysis for Risk Assessment

  • Scenario Exercise
  • Off-Shore Wind Example with Custom scenario cases

Chapter 18: Generating Tornado Diagrams, Spider Charts, and Waterfall Graphs

  • Tornado Exercise with One-Way Data Table
  • Tornado Exercise with Two-Way Table
  • Spider Diagram Exercise and Example
  • Renewable Model with Spider Diagram
  • Downside Case with Value Build-up Waterfall Example

Chapter 19: Adding Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Time Series Equations to Financial Models

  • Exercise in Working with Statistical Distributions
  • Commodity Price Analysis File
  • Renewable Simulation Example
  • Hydro Resource Analysis
  • Wind Speed Resource Analysis
  • Solar Resource Analysis

Chapter 20: Taking the Mystery out of Applying Time Series Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation in Financial Models

  • Single Column Model Exercise
  • Senior and Sub Debt without VBA
  • Time Series Exercise with Distributions
  • Monte Carlo Simulation Exercise with VBA
  • Lease Book with Monte Carlo Simulation

Chapter 21: Constructing Probability Distributions with Trends, Mean Reversion, Price Boundaries, and Correlations among Variables

  • Model with Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Comprehensive Monte Carlo Template
  • Retrieve Stock Prices General
  • Correlation Exercise
  • Cholesky Exercise and Proof

Chapter 22: The Difficult Problem of Estimating Volatility, Mean Reversion, Time Trends, Correlations, and Price Boundaries from Historical Data or Market Data

  • Log Normal Distribution
  • Simulation of Volatility and Time
  • Volatility Function
  • Mean Reversion Test
  • Replication of Black Scholes with Simulation

Chapter 24: Computing the Return on Invested Capital for Historical and Projected Periods in Corporate Models

  • Flower Foods Corporate Model with Summary Page
  • Free Cash Flow and Equity Cash Flow Perspective and Reconciliation
  • Example of using INDEX to Make Flexible Graphs of Assumptions and Outputs

Chapter 25: Calculation of Invested Capital

  • Long-term Accounts Payable Simulation Exercise
  • ROIC and ROE Reconciliation
  • ROIC Analysis

Chapter 26: Complex Items in Balance Sheet Analysis: Deferred Taxes, Operating Cash, and Derivative Assets

  • Proofs of Bridge Between Equity and Enterprise Value
  • Bridge Between Equity Value and Enterprise Value
  • Basic Deferred Tax Exercises without growth
  • Modigliani and Miller and WACC
  • Problems with Unleveraging and Releveraging Beta Exercise

Chapter 27: Four General Terminal Value Methods

  • Corporate Valuation Concepts
  • DCF Exercise with Retirements
  • Alternative Terminal Valuation Methods

Chapter 28: Terminal Value and Philosophy: Company Growth Rates and Overall Economic Growth

  • Discounting in DCF with Partial Year Factors
  • Partial Year Discounting
  • Exercise for Transition Factors
  • Proof of Partial Year Discounting
  • Variable WACC and Partial Year Discounting
  • Transition Factors PE Ratio
  • Transition Factors EV EBITDA Ratio

Chapter 29: Normalizing Terminal Year Cash Flows for Stable Working Capital Investment

  • Working Capital Exercise
  • Stable Working Capital

Chapter 30: Relationship of Growth, Capital Expenditures, Depreciation, and Return on Investment

  • Stable Depreciation Rate
  • Capital Expenditure Analysis
  • Capital Expenditure to Depreciation with Historic Growth
  • Cap Expenditure and Depreciation Functions
  • Depreciation Functions.bas

Chapter 31: Computing Normalized Deferred Tax Changes

  • Stable Deferred Tax
  • Stable Deferred Tax - Historic Growth
  • Stable Deferred Tax Function

Chapter 32: Terminal Value and the Ability of a Company to Earn Returns above the Cost of Capital

  • Financial Ratio Download
  • Financial Ratio Analysis General
  • Downloading Saudi Stocks and INDIRECT Examples
  • Retrieve Interest Rate and Inflation
  • Retrieve Electricity Price Data

Chapter 33: Errors and Distortions in Applying the Value Driver Formula

  • Value Driver Analysis - Equity Basis
  • Value Driver Analysis Working Capital
  • Value Driver Analysis EV

Chapter 34: Computing Implied Price/Earnings Ratios for Use in Terminal Value Calculations

  • P/E Ratio Analysis
  • P/E Analysis with Varying Growth

Chapter 35: Computing an Implied EV/EBITDA Ratio in Terminal Value Calculations

  • EV/EBITDA Exercise
  • PE and EV/EBITDA Analysis - Linear
  • PE and EV/EBITDA Analysis - Growth
  • ROIC and EV to EBITDA

Chapter 36: Developing Value Drivers for P/E and EV/EBITDA Ratios with Benchmarking and Regression

  • Workbooks.open Exercise
  • Slovenia Stock Exchange
  • Regression of Market Multiples

Chapter 37: Resolving Circular References in Acquisition Models: Computing Interest Expense on the Average Balance of Debt

  • Cash Flow Sweep Exercise without Taxes
  • Cash Flow Sweep Exercise with Taxes

Chapter 38: Creating a Structured Cash Flow Process in a Corporate Model to Resolve Circular References

  • Cash Flow Process with Minimum
  • Circular Resolution for Corporate Model
  • Circular Reference Nairobi Tea Company

Chapter 39: Overview of Complex Project Finance Modeling Structuring Issues

  • Project Finance Concepts
  • Function Model Function Library
  • Renewable Project Finance Model with Instructions

Chapter 40: Funding Techniques in Project Finance and the Associated Circular Reference Problems

  • Circular Fee Exercise
  • Debt Funding Exercises - 1
  • Debt Funding Exercises - 2
  • Circular Logic from Equity First
  • Circular Logic from Fixed Debt to Capital Ratio
  • Bond Financing Exercise

Chapter 41: Debt Sculpting in a Project Finance Model

  • Alternative Sculpting Method Methods without Tax
  • Sculpting with Circularity
  • Comprehensive Model with Sculpting Option
  • Project Finance Concepts Advanced

Chapter 42: Automating the Goal Seek Process for Annuity and Equal Installment Repayments

  • Debt Sizing with Goal Seek Macro
  • Debt Sizing with Function
  • Alternative Debt Sizing

Chapter 43: Modeling Debt Service Reserve Accounts

  • DSRA Set-up Exercise
  • DSRA with Cash Flow Sweep
  • DSRA Circular Exercise
  • Debt Service Reserve Exercise

Chapter 44: Modeling Maintenance Reserve Accounts

  • MRA Exercise - Simple
  • MRA Example

Chapter 45: Refinancing and Valuing a Project Given Risk Changes over the Life of a Project

  • Refinancing Exercise with Cash Sweep
  • Multiple Refinancing Exercise
  • Refinancing Example
  • Solar Project Finance Model with Refinancing
  • Mini Perm Example

Chapter 46: Covenants and Cash Flow Sweeps in Project Finance Models

  • Cash Sweep Exercise
  • Lock-up Covenant Exercise
  • Sweep and Trap Exercise

Chapter 47: Asset Portfolios, Progress Payments, and Lease Rolls in Real Estate Models

  • Comprehensive Real Estate with Mixed Use and Percent of Time Function
  • Commercial Lease Roll
  • Real Estate Exercises
  • Percent of Time Function
  • Mixed Use with Residential and Financing
  • Solar Roof Top Example
  • Hotel Project Finance
  • cResidential Mixed Use Model with Data Table Method

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